Abstract
Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the public health measures enacted to control its spread may affect the mental health of the general population of Ireland. Funded under the Health Research Board’s COVID-19 Pandemic Rapid Response Funding Call, this protocol outlines the aims of a project to assess and protect the mental health of the population of Ireland during this pandemic. We will determine (i) the prevalence of common mental health disorders at various times during the first year of the pandemic, (ii) changes in the prevalence of mental health disorders during the first year of the pandemic, (iii) if there are distinct groups of people experiencing different mental health responses to the pandemic, and (iv) the factors associated with different mental health reactions. Methods: This quantitative study uses cross-sectional and longitudinal designs. Data have been collected from a nationally representative sample of Irish adults at four assessments: Wave 1 (N = 1,041) occurred during the first week of lockdown in March 2020, Wave 2 in May, Wave 3 in August, and Wave 4 in December. Wave 5 is planned for March 2021. Participants from Wave 1 have been recontacted at each wave to produce a longitudinal dataset. New participants were recruited using quota sampling to ensure the availability of nationally representative samples at each wave. Self-report measures of demographic, economic, psychological, and mental health variables were completed. Conclusion: This design will allow us to determine whether there has been a change in mental health disorders in the general population during the first year of the pandemic, and if so, what variables are associated with changes in mental health. Results will be used to inform the government’s ongoing response to this crisis, to better protect the mental health of the nation during this and any future public health emergency.
Highlights
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was accompanied by several warnings of the consequences that the pandemic would wreak on the mental health of the general population (Adhanom Ghebreyesus, 2020; Campion et al, 2020; Carvalho et al, 2020; Reger et al, 2020)
Another study published in The Lancet Psychiatry using data collected from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) found that the proportion of people experiencing clinically significant distress rose from 19% in 2014–2016 to 27% in April 2020, and led the authors to conclude that the mental health of the nation had ‘deteriorated compared to pre-pandemic levels’ (Pierce et al, 2020, p. 883)
While we remain open to the possibility that the pandemic has led to a deterioration in the mental health of the general population, given what is known about human resiliency to adversity and trauma (Galatzer-Levy et al, 2018), and the importance of scientists remaining sceptical and prudent in the absence of sufficient evidence, we argue in favour of assuming the null hypothesis to be true until we can confidently refute it
Summary
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was accompanied by several warnings of the consequences that the pandemic would wreak on the mental health of the general population (Adhanom Ghebreyesus, 2020; Campion et al, 2020; Carvalho et al, 2020; Reger et al, 2020). While we remain open to the possibility that the pandemic has led (or could lead) to a deterioration in the mental health of the general population, given what is known about human resiliency to adversity and trauma (Galatzer-Levy et al, 2018), and the importance of scientists remaining sceptical and prudent in the absence of sufficient evidence, we argue in favour of assuming the null hypothesis to be true (i.e., that the onset of the pandemic is not associated with significant changes in mental health outcomes in the general population) until we can confidently refute it To this end, we are aware of several longitudinal, nationally representative surveys, taking place across different countries, using identical methods, that were convened in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of COVID-19. Assuming that there will be different groups of people with specific patterns of change in their mental health (e.g., ‘deteriorating’, ‘improving’, ‘stable’), we will determine the individual and psychosocial factors associated with these different changes in mental health during the first year of the pandemic
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