Abstract
Ecosystem services are the important link between the ecological system and human welfare. Quantifying and predicting the changes of ecosystem service value (ESV) is an important tool to seek choices to manage natural and human-made capital more effectively and sustainably. This study aims to model and predict the impacts of future Land Use/Land Cover(LULC) changes on ESV in a coastal area suffering rapid process of urbanization of China, Qingdao. Based on Landsat images and random forest algorithm, LULC in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 were mapped and classified. A cellular automaton (CA)-Markov model was used to simulate future LULC changes in 2025. ESVs was quantified and predicted based LULC data and a modified coefficient method. The total ESV of Qingdao decreased from 172.72 billion yuan in 1990 to 164.17 billion yuan in 2025, mainly due to the loss of farmland and grassland. The built-up land should be controlled to the occupation of farmland and grassland. The management of LULC should follow ecological protection rules to protect environment and achieve sustainable and balanced development.
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