Assessing and modelling transport delays risk in supply chains

Abstract

We propose in this paper, an approach for monitoring the dynamic evolution of risk associated to delays affecting the transportation operations. We use a new deployment of the failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) organised around the dreaded scenarios and allowing a better representation of undesired cause-effect chains associated to the occurrence of critical events. This is a quantification technique to evaluate, at discrete points, the probability of the dreaded scenarios and their effect on the cost. The exploitation of this method is combined with a monitoring mechanism able to supervise the evolution of risk states during the course of operations in a logistic process. The operating states, involving threats, are represented in a model based on Petri nets. The obtained model is used to reproduce the behaviour of the logistic process, and then simulate the progress of their operations both in nominal mode and in degraded mode.