Abstract
Historic urban centres are, almost by definition, risk-prone areas. The buildings in the historical sites are often highly vulnerable to natural and human-made hazards, not only due to their construction and material characteristics but also because they are usually very degraded due to ineffective maintenance and conservation policies. Moreover, the recent world tourism boom has led to a significant increase in the number of people who live, work and visit these areas, which, together with land use and climate change-related impacts, make historic centres particularly exposed areas. This paper addresses the issue of assessing and managing risk in historic urban centres departing from the complexity of defining the historic city and the concept of risk, providing a comprehensive discussion on current trends and future research directions in this field. After analysing the most suitable methodologies to assess the vulnerability of these areas to different hazards, the focus is on data collection and organisation-related issues and how the different vulnerability assessment outputs can be used to manage and mitigate risk. Vulnerability and loss scenarios, evacuation and emergency planning, and retrofit and cost-benefit analyses are some of the aspects addressed herein. This discussion includes some considerations on the accuracy of these approaches and aspects related to their calibration and validation, covering from empirical calibration models to advanced artificial Intelligence-based techniques.
Highlights
Urban areas are, by definition, highly vulnerable to natural hazards (Ferreira et al, 2013)
These singularities, which are often a manifestation of cultural values, demand a very specific and straightforward analysis of the historic city and the challenges it must face, such as risks associated with natural hazards
According to the Historic Urban Landscape (HUL) approach, consequent risk assessment depends on a representative characterisation of the historic city and, an adequate data-acquisition approach
Summary
By definition, highly vulnerable to natural hazards (Ferreira et al, 2013). One of the most important steps of the HUL approach consists of assessing the vulnerability of the city towards natural events, socio-economic stresses and climatic change In this context, it becomes determinant to anticipate the challenges that a city will reasonably face, compromising its functions, material assets, inhabitants and immaterial values. The Financial Risk and Opportunities to Build Resilience in Europe inform (World Bank, 2021) states that major disasters create liabilities that can exceed 17% of Gross Domestic Product in European countries It presents a scenario in which there is a 10% chance of having an earthquake or flood that will exhaust the existing finance. Preparedness towards these scenarios is a key for guaranteeing the sustainable future of historic cities In this framework, the present manuscript provides a compilation and discussion of research focused on the assessment of the vulnerability and risk in urban areas to natural and human-made hazards, including earthquake, fire and flood. By covering a wide range of approaches and research experiences, such a review is mainly targeted to researchers, practitioners and decision-makers interested in a broad but integrative approach to the topic
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