Assessing and anticipating environmental challenges in Lahore, Pakistan: future implications of air pollution on sustainable development and environmental governance.

Abstract

Urban environment and air quality are changing primarily due to land use land cover (LULC) changes, economic activity, and urbanization. Air pollution has been increasingly acknowledged as a major issue for cities due to its extensive effects on health and well-being. As the second most populous city in the country, Lahorefaces alarming levels of air pollutants, whichinduced this study to focus on the pervasive issue of air pollution in Lahore. For this, the study collected air pollutants data from the Environmental Protection Department of Punjab and analyzed them using the ARIMA model. In the research results, both the observed data and predictive models uncovered concerning trends in pollutant concentrations, ultimatelyportraying a concerning picture for air quality management. Carbon monoxide (CO) levels show a consistent rise, surpassing Pakistan's environmental standards by 2025. Similarly, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations escalate, exceeding prescribed standards. Ground-level ozone (O3) also demonstrates a substantial increase, surpassing standards by 2025. Both PM2.5 and PM10 exhibit marked upward trends, projected to exceed recommended limits, particularly PM10 throughout the study year. The Air Quality Index exhibits an observable upward trend, fluctuating between 70 and 442 from 2015 to 2020. Similarly, a positive correlation was found between population growth and land use conversion into residential areas. Projections suggest a continuous increase, potentially hitting a severe level of 500 during winter by 2025. These findings point to an impending air pollution crisis, demanding urgent action to address the hazardous situation in the city. The study recommends that urban air pollution should be reduced, and the negative health effects of air pollution should be minimized using vegetation barriers, screens, and greening initiatives. Strict regulations and monitoring initiatives need to be put in place in big cities to monitor pollution and vegetation.