Abstract
In a commercial environment, TA is frequently seen as an extension of technological forecasting with the purpose to provide arguments for company policy. Following the contribution illus- trating this approach, which was published in the last issue, 1 Futures is now introducing another concept of TA as a policy-oriented activity in the area of “social technology”. This article discusses methodological lessons learnt from an attempt to assess the impacts of the introduction of no-fault automobile insurance on a nationwide basis. It is concerned with the development of systematic procedures for analysing two types of future conditions: (1) the unintended social impacts likely to result from a given innovation in a relatively stable external environment; and (2) the changes in intended impacts and additional unintended impacts likely to result from coupling the given innovation with other prospective changes in the external world.
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