Assess the economic imact of climate change on wheat, barley, maize and sunflower in Southeast Bulgaria

Abstract

The report studied the impact of the expected climate change in the period 2020-2050 on the yield of wheat, barley, maize and sunflower in southeastern planning region (Southeast region) of Bulgaria. Estimated economic impact of climate change on agriculture in the Southeast region. By stepwise regression analysis, predictors are defined and obtained regression relations for the average yield for each of the studied crops with climate model REMO and climate scenario A1B. Enter the evaluation of error forecast yields for each of the studied cultures and reporting its receipt of the final forecasts. Based on regression equations obtained an estimate for the change in the average yield of the studied crops. There are formed groups to change average yields of crops studied, the results are used as input data for economic assessment and analysis. On the basis of these groups was determined the optimal structure of production to Southeast region for the period 2020-2050. Determine the required amounts of fuel, fertilizers and agro-chemical equipment for the production of the studied crops in Southeast region for the period 2020- 2050 due to climate changes.