Abstract
This paper focuses on Asian monsoon projection with CMIP5 multi-model outputs. A large-scale monsoon herewith is defined as a vector field of vertically integrated moisture flux from the surface to 500 hPa. Results demonstrate that the model ensemble mean underestimated the summer monsoon and overestimated slightly the winter monsoon over South Asia in both CMIP5 historical climate simulation and the monsoon projection for 2006–2015. The major of the bias is the model climate drift (MCD), which is removed in the monsoon projection for 2016–2045 under scenarios RCP4.5 for reducing the uncertainty. The projection shows that two increased moisture flows northward appeared across the Equator of Indian Ocean, the first is nearby Somalia coast toward northwestern part of South Asia, leading to excess rainfall in where the wet jet could reach, and the second starts from the equatorial Sect. (80°E–100°E) toward northeastern Bay of Bengal, leading to more rainfall spreading over the northwestern coast of Indochina Peninsula. In addition, a westward monsoon flow is intensified over the Peninsula leading to local climate moisture transport belt shifted onto South China Sea, which would reduce moisture transport toward Southwest China on one hand, and transport more moisture onto the southeast coast of the China mainland. The anomalous monsoon would result in a dry climate in Northwest China and wet climate in the coast belt during summer monsoon season for the period. Besides, the Asian winter monsoon would be seemingly intensified slightly over South Asia, which would bring a dry winter climate to Indian subcontinent, Northwest China, but would be more rainfall in southeast part of Arabian Peninsula with global climate warming.
Highlights
Monsoon climate can be found in many regions of the world, for instance, Asian monsoon, African monsoon, Australian monsoon, and so on (Webster 1981; Wang et al 2004; Li and Wang 2005; Chang et al 2018)
This study has analyzed the bias pattern of the Asian monsoon represented by vertically integrated moisture flux from the surface to 500 hPa in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical climate simulation and projection for 2006–2015, and made an Asian monsoon projection for 2016–2045
The main results are presented as following: (1) CMIP5 historical monsoon simulation can approximately reproduce large-scale Asian monsoon pattern for 1960–2005 (2) The monsoon bias exists in both CMIP5 historical climate simulation and projection, which has the summer monsoon underestimated in South Asia and East Asia, and has the winter monsoon overestimated in South Asia for 1960–2005
Summary
Monsoon climate can be found in many regions of the world, for instance, Asian monsoon, African monsoon, Australian monsoon, and so on (Webster 1981; Wang et al 2004; Li and Wang 2005; Chang et al 2018). The monsoon indices are usually predicted every year in the countries of the monsoon zones, instead of predicting directly the whole monsoon rainfall field (Shukla and Paolin 1983; Rao et al 2019; Huang et al 2020) Such monsoon indices are usually regarded as an indicator of regional monsoon intensity that implies potential flood or drought hazard, while a large-scale monsoon pattern is often represented by the wind field on 850 hPa (Chen et al 2000; Ventham and Wang 2007). This study tries to demonstrate the changes of large-scale Asian monsoon pattern basing on CMIP5 multimodel outputs under RCP4.5 scenarios for 2016–2045, which is somewhat like a monsoon prediction without considering RCP2.6 or RCP8.5 scenario for such a short period (30 years). A short concluding remark is put in the last section with brief discussion
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