Asian INDC Assessments: The Case of Thailand

Abstract

On 1st October 2015, Thailand had submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and stated that by 2030 GHG emissions will be reduced by 20–25% when compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Paris. In addition, Thailand provided signature at the United Nations in New York on 22 April 2016 and ratified the Paris Agreement on 21 September 2016. This paper assesses the impacts of GHG emission reduction targets in Thailand’s INDC by using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE). Four scenarios are established by the given GHG emission constraints and the renewable power generation target. Results show that, under the Power Development Plan in 2015, the INDC target is achievable. As a result, macroeconomic loss is low in low reduction target, but it will be high in the high reduction target. In addition, it needs more renewable energy push to realize stringent climate policy. Thus, the availability of land for deploying the renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, and biomass needs to be evaluated to meet higher GHG emission levels. Furthermore, the stringent GHG emission levels also induce the reduction of other air pollutants. Finally, the result of this study has been used in the design of roadmap for GHG reduction targets in 2030, and Thailand has more confidence on the achievement of the Paris Agreement.