Asia–Pacific integration within a broader Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Abstract

The current progress and status of regional trade arrangements worldwide reveals competition between countries for dominance of new global trade rules. To a great extent, safeguarding the interests of China in the post-crisis era will be a significant political project that will enable China to participate in the new round of global economic governance. This paper uses the updated GTAP CGE framework to describe potential outcomes for the different choices of the Chinese government. First, if the TPP Agreement, which includes China, clearly promotes the economies of the U.S. and Japan. Second, Southeast Asian countries that mainly undertake the transfer of general labor-intensive manufacturing from China can benefit more if the TPP Agreement excludes China, whereas the countries that mainly undertake the transfer of processing manufacturing from China can obtain more benefits if the TPP Agreement includes China. Finally, the TPP Agreement with China is conducive to further strengthening China’s influence on the process of economic integration in the Asia–Pacific region.