ASEAN’s Energy Transition towards Cleaner Energy System: Energy Modelling Scenarios and Policy Implications

Han Phoumin,Jun Arima,Fukunari Kimura

doi:10.3390/su13052819

Han Phoumin, Jun Arima + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052819

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Abstract

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces tremendous challenges regarding the future energy landscape and how the energy transition will embrace a new architecture—including sound policies and technologies to ensure energy access together with affordability, energy security, and energy sustainability. Given the high share of fossil fuels in ASEAN’s current energy mix (oil, coal, and natural gas comprise almost 80%), the clean use of fossil fuels through the deployment of clean technologies is indispensable for decarbonizing ASEAN’s emissions. The future energy landscape of ASEAN will rely on today’s actions, policies, and investments to change the fossil fuel-based energy system towards a cleaner energy system, but any decisions and energy policy measures to be rolled out during the energy transition need to be weighed against potentially higher energy costs, affordability issues, and energy security risks. This paper employs energy modelling scenarios to seek plausible policy options for ASEAN to achieve more emissions reductions as well as energy savings, and to assess the extent to which the composition of the energy mix will be changed under various energy policy scenarios. The results imply policy recommendations for accelerating the share of renewables, adopting clean technologies and the clean use of fossil fuels, and investing in climate-resilient energy quality infrastructure.

Highlights

This study aims to address the research questions on what are the projected impacts on greenhouse gas emissions of different potential energy mixes for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, and which energy mix should the region pursue? this study employs energy models of ASEAN countries using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software, an accounting system used to develop projections of energy balance tables based on final energy consumption and energy input/output in the transformation sector
It is important to note that the trend of natural gas use in the energy transition is very promising, as its share has grown quickly in the primary energy mix as well as in power generation
Any policy changes to meet the emissions reduction in ASEAN need to be cautioned about high energy costs, energy access, affordability, and energy security risks

Summary

Introduction

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The world has been struggling with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic since March 2020, which has damaged the world economy—including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The global economy is being pushed into a recession by the COVID-19 pandemic due to preventive and containment measures such as country lockdowns, travel restrictions, and slow or even negative growth in many sectors such as tourism, retail, and industry. The magnitude of the economic impacts is hard to predict as it depends on the success of the pandemic containment efforts around the world

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