Abstract
This article assesses performance of the agricultural sector in Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines (VIP countries) during the period 1980–2011, future prospects up to 2040 and food security in these countries and in the ASEAN region. Analysis of the past performance and likely future scenarios was carried out with the aid of the Centennial Group’s Global Growth Model after introducing several modifications to address the needs of the agricultural sector. Our modeling efforts were divided into two parts. The first part comprised a macro-economic analysis of future scenarios at the global level and for VIP countries. The second part included analysis at the country level of future total factor productivity (TFP), agricultural production and changes in national food consumption habits. As a countercheck use was also made of IFPRI’s updated IMPACT Model, and in the case of the Philippines, the AMPLE model.
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