ASEAN and Trade Regionalism: An Opportunity for Convergence or Threat of “Two Speeds”?

Abstract

The paper is studying Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—integration grouping, through the prism of trade regionalism and the concept of two-speed. Author provided an indicatory analysis in order to embrace different dimensions of development gap between ASEAN-6 (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) and CLMV (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Vietnam), while pointing out the context of convergence and perspectives of narrowing the distance successfully. A special emphasis was put on the context of competitive mega-regional projects of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), with overlapping memberships of four ASEAN states, namely, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. Author attempts to draw implications of eventual successful establishment of two trade blocks led by the United States on the one side, and China on the other, including the threat of internal decomposition of ASEAN and division into pro-TPP and pro-RCEP coalitions, while affecting ASEAN’s centralist role in Asian regionalism. Two-speed ASEAN was studied both in economic and political terms in this matter, while Vietnam was recognized as prospective member of the ASEAN’s core operating at higher speed.