Abstract
Research was undertaken to evaluate the current condition of asbestos-cement (AC) pipe and develop service life prediction model for the Alameda County Water District (ACWD) distribution system. Laboratory assessment of 47 pipe samples removed from the system revealed that, while pipe strengths were satisfactory, deterioration of AC pipe due to leaching of calcium from the cement matrix was progressing. Analysis of leak records between 1987 and 2006 demonstrated that pipe age and nominal size were the most critical factors affecting leak rates. A semi-empirical model developed for predicting future leak rates and cumulative number of leaks over time was individually calibrated for each grid cell in the distribution system to reflect unique leak rate history observed for the specific cell. The estimated remaining service life of AC pipe in each cell was determined by comparing the predicted cumulative number of leaks with a threshold number of acceptable leaks.
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