Abstract
The aim of the article is to analyze inflation factors and their influence on the consumer price index in the regions. The article discusses the existing mathematical models for the forecasting of the regional inflation rate as an important national measure. Advantages, disadvantages and application fields of these models are presented. The appropriateness of recurrent neural network use for regional inflation forecasting is demonstrated. The article describes the process of neural network architecture creation, its training, inflation parameter forecasting.
Highlights
Inflation forecasting is a consistently relevant task for the monetary authorities since, being a most important economic parameter, the inflation rate determines the direction and tool set of the financial and monetary policy, influences the investment climate in the country and the quality of life of the population
To form a model for the forecasting of regional inflation rate, we propose the use of the following variables as factors
The baseline data set contained meso- and macro-indicators for the period starting from January 1, 2014, where the target function is the consumer price index (Fig. 2)
Summary
Inflation forecasting is a consistently relevant task for the monetary authorities since, being a most important economic parameter, the inflation rate determines the direction and tool set of the financial and monetary policy, influences the investment climate in the country and the quality of life of the population. The consumer price index (hereinafter – CPI) is an inflation rate indicator in Russia. It measures time change in the cost of a set of food and non-food products and charged services consumed by an average household. It is common knowledge that the territorial expanse of Russia entails uneven development of its constituent units when the economic and social parameters can vary significantly in different territories. The CPI dynamics depends on a lot of factors from the sphere of production, trade, provision of financial services, as well as social-psychological and political forces The situation when all economic system segments and all territorial units get equal opportunities for development is key to the progressive development of the state, sustainable economic growth and social stability.
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