Abstract

We used a large sample of 188,652 properties, which represented 4.88% of the total housing stock in Catalonia from 1994 to 2013, to make a comparison between different real estate valuation methods based on artificial neural networks (ANNs), quantile regressions (QRs) and semi-log regressions (SLRs). A literature gap in regard to the comparison between ANN and QR modelling of hedonic prices in housing was identified, with this article being the first paper to include this comparison. Therefore, this study aimed to answer (1) whether QR valuation modelling of hedonic prices in the housing market is an alternative to ANNs, (2) whether it is confirmed that ANNs produce better results than SLRs when assessing housing in Catalonia, and (3) which of the three mass appraisal models should be used by Spanish banks to assess real estate. The results suggested that the ANNs and SLRs obtained similar and better performances than the QRs and that the SLRs performed better when the datasets were smaller. Therefore, (1) QRs were not found to be an alternative to ANNs, (2) it could not be confirmed whether ANNs performed better than SLRs when assessing properties in Catalonia and (3) whereas small and medium banks should use SLRs, large banks should use either SLRs or ANNs in real estate mass appraisal.

Highlights

  • The excessive dependence on the real estate industry, in addition to the softening of credit standards [1], meant that the economic and financial crisis of the end of the first decade of the 21st century hit Spain more severely than other developed economies.61,495 million euros were needed to bail out the banking system, which has been radically transformed by means of mergers, acquisitions and the transformation of almost all savings banks into commercial banks [2,3]

  • Rosen [7] provided the theoretical foundation by means of showing how marginal prices are implicitly determined by the characteristics of heterogeneous products that can be estimated by means of a model, which explains the price of products based on their characteristics

  • This paper presents new evidence to compare the performances of quantile regressions (QRs) and semi-log regressions (SLRs)

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Summary

Introduction

The excessive dependence on the real estate industry, in addition to the softening of credit standards [1], meant that the economic and financial crisis of the end of the first decade of the 21st century hit Spain more severely than other developed economies.61,495 million euros were needed to bail out the banking system, which has been radically transformed by means of mergers, acquisitions and the transformation of almost all savings banks into commercial banks [2,3]. The economic literature that deals with hedonic prices arose in the context of the car market. This was the framework for the classical work by Griliches [4], who made these models popular by estimating car prices after controlling the characteristic that affected their prices, such as fuel consumption and horsepower. Once the technique became popular in the 1950s [6], more than a decade was necessary to establish its theoretical framework In this regard, Rosen [7] provided the theoretical foundation by means of showing how marginal prices are implicitly determined by the characteristics of heterogeneous products that can be estimated by means of a model (called the hedonic price model), which explains the price of products based on their characteristics (the hedonic technique is based on modern consumer choice theory; this theory states that a consumer does not obtain utility directly from the good but from its characteristics [8]). QRs have recently been used in the literature on housing economics [23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36]

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