Artificial Neural Network Models for Rainfall Prediction

Emmanuel Gbenga Dada,David Opeoluwa Oyewola,Hurcha Joseph Yakubu

doi:10.24018/ejece.2021.5.2.313

Abstract

Rainfall prediction is an important meteorological problem that can greatly affect humanity in areas such as agriculture production, flooding, drought, and sustainable management of water resources. The dynamic and nonlinear nature of the climatic conditions have made it impossible for traditional techniques to yield satisfactory accuracy for rainfall prediction. As a result of the sophistication of climatic processes that produced rainfall, using quantitative techniques to predict rainfall is a very cumbersome task. The paper proposed four non-linear techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for rainfall prediction. ANN has the capacity to map different input and output patterns. The Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN), Cascade Forward Neural Network (CFNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Elman Neural Network (ENN) were used to predict rainfall. The dataset used for this work contains some meteorological variables such as temperature, wind speed, humidity, rainfall, visibility, and others for the year 2015-2019. Simulation results indicated that of all the proposed Neural Network (NN) models, the Elman NN model produced the best performance. We also found out that Elman NN has the best performance for the year 2018 (having the lowest RMSE, MSE, and MAE of 6.360, 40.45, and 0.54 respectively). The results indicated that NN algorithms are robust, dependable, and reliable algorithms that can be used for daily, monthly, or yearly rainfall prediction.

Highlights

Accurate prediction of rainfall has been one of the most important area in hydrological research
We evaluate the prediction performance of the ensemble Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) using three metrics: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE), and Mean Square Error (MSE)
Our findings shows that the Elman Neural Network (NN) model performs best in 2018

Summary

Introduction

Accurate prediction of rainfall has been one of the most important area in hydrological research. This is because early warnings of severe weather can help prevent fatalities and harms caused by natural disasters if the prediction is done on time and accurately. Forecasting has been one of the greatest challenges of researchers working on the development of predictive system for rainfall in different disciplines such as weather data mining [1], environmental machine learning [2], operational hydrology [3], and statistical forecasting [4]. Analyzing past rainfall data and using it to predict future rainfall is a complex task that only very robust and effective algorithms can achieve. An accurate modelling of rainfall by a single global model is sometimes not possible [5]

Methods

Results

Conclusion