Artificial intelligence based prediction of optimum operating conditions of a plate and fin heat exchanger under uncertainty: A gray-box approach

Abstract

This study is based on gray-box modeling for the prediction of optimum mass flow rates of inlet streams of a Plate and Fin Heat Exchanger under uncertainty. A first principle model of the Plate and Fin Heat Exchanger was developed in Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating. Genetic algorithm was integrated with the first principle model to achieve the highest possible exit temperature of the cold process stream under uncertainty. A dataset of uncertain process conditions and their corresponding optimum inlet flow rates derived through the first principle-genetic algorithm integration was used to develop an artificial neural networks model. The artificial neural networks model was then integrated with the first principle model by replacing the genetic algorithm to form a novel gray-box framework. The proposed gray box model, i.e., artificial neural networks and first principle integration, achieved a higher effectiveness and higher outlet temperature than those derived through the straight run first principle model. The performance of the gray box framework was also comparable to the first principle integrated genetic algorithm approach and significantly minimized the computation time needed for estimating the optimum process conditions. First principle integrated genetic algorithm approach enhanced the effectiveness of the straight run model by 3.05%. Performance of the proposed gray-box model was comparable to the integrated framework of the genetic algorithm with the first principle model but was significantly faster. The developed artificial neural networks model was employed as a surrogate in Sobol and FAST sensitivity analysis framework to identify the impact of input variables on output variables. The proposed gray box based method enhanced the capability of the plate and fin heat exchanger to recover energy from the process stream and its robustness to cope with uncertainty. The proposed approach is suitable for real-time application and would contribute to laying a foundation for petroleum refinery 4.0.