ART as meta-credence: authentication and the role of experts

Abstract

Authenticity is a perennial issue in art markets. This paper investigates the character of some art identifying it as meta-credence goods and utilizing a formal Bayesian model of how experts (or buyers) play a role in evaluating art works, as suggested in a recent paper by Ginsburgh et al. (J Econ Behav Organ 159:36–50, 2019). Experts or a consensus of experts determines credence status where present and future falsification (in the sense of Karl Popper) is impossible. Credence is always a matter of probabilistic degree, and we define a class of extreme credence goods called meta-credence. Consensus of expert opinion serves as verification in the art world where consensus substitutes for falsification. These opinions are relied on by buyers and the art-loving public. This paper outlines the process that the art expert undergoes to render a verdict on the authenticity of art.