Abstract
Richardson’s action-reaction model of an arms race has prompted a considerable body of research which has attempted to empirically estimate such models. In general these attempts have been unsuccessful. This paper reconsiders the estimation issues using some recent developments in time-series econometrics, illustrating the issues with estimates for Greece and Turkey and India and Pakistan. Whereas there is little evidence for a Richardson type arms race for Greece and Turkey, India and Pakistan show a stable interaction with a well determined equilibrium.
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