Arms imports in sub-saharan Africa: Predicting conflict involvement

Abstract

This paper explores relationships between the arms trade and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa from 1967 to 1997. We present a bivariate logistic regression model to explain the variance in domestic and international conflict incidence in the region. Our models indicate that the relationship between weapons transfers and war is stronger in sub-Saharan Africa than the literature on the region indicates, and should be included as an integral element in more comprehensive models of conflict. The findings have clear implications for further research and arms transfer policy toward regions of conflict.