Armed conflict, institutions and deforestation: A dynamic spatiotemporal analysis of Colombia 2000–2018

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of the Colombian internal armed conflict on local development processes and deforestation during 2000–2018. The paper develops a theoretical framework of the deforestation process, as determined by the spatiotemporal patterns of socio-economic and conflict related variables. These determinants are examined using a system of spatial dynamic panels by land-use activity, and emphasizing interactions and spatiotemporal lags. The theoretical approach is innovative and applicable to other cases where political, economic and ideological interests interact in deforestation processes. In addition, the methodological structure of our spatial panels allows us to determine the effect of armed conflict agents’ and socio-economic structures, combined and in isolation. Our results formally verify that different armed actors’ strategies and ideologies, determine different and contrasting spatiotemporal patterns of deforestation/conservation, in the context of structural socio-economic determinants in Colombia. We argue about the need of context-specific modelling in any microeconomic or agent-based analysis of deforestation.