Abstract
The Istanbul Strait is one of the busiest and riskiest trade routes, with the annual traffic of 50,000 ships. Such high traffic density is managed by the enforcement of a passage regimen by the Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) and maritime pilots of the Directorate General of Coastal Safety of the Republic of Turkey. VTS operations and maritime pilot actions are assumed to complement each other. Accordingly, a vessel unaccompanied by a maritime pilot is expected to interact with the VTS to a greater extent than a vessel assisted by a maritime pilot. Thus, estimating the number of ships that pass through the Istanbul Strait, especially those that do not use maritime pilot assistance, will be an effective tool for the Istanbul Strait traffic scheme management, as it will allow the authorities to balance and integrate VTS and maritime pilot operations. The predictive model based on Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) described in this paper has been developed to estimate the number of ships that navigate through the Istanbul Strait without pilot assistance. The best ARMA model was identified through the use of historical data on 100-150 meter and 150-200-meter-long ships that passed through the Istanbul Strait unaccompanied by pilots in 2012-2019. The ARMA model obtained has also been validated through the comparison of real and estimated data.
Highlights
The Istanbul Strait, which is one of the narrowest international shipping straits in the world, is approximately 31 km long, with the average width of 1.5 km (Uluscu et al, 2009)
The best Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is an appropriate tool for predicting the number of ships that navigate the Istanbul Strait without pilot assistance
This study presents ARMA-based time series modeling and prediction of the number of ships navigating the Istanbul Strait unaccompanied by a pilot through the use of the EViews software
Summary
The Istanbul Strait, which is one of the narrowest international shipping straits in the world, is approximately 31 km long, with the average width of 1.5 km (Uluscu et al, 2009) It is the world's most important and hazardous natural water surface characterized by complex geographical structure, strong currents, sharp turns, variable weather conditions, traversed by approximately 140 ships, 25 dangerous cargo ship and 2,500 regional vessels each day. Given these intense and complex conditions and the limited functionality of the Istanbul Strait, the volume of traffic in the Istanbul Strait may safely be assumed to have reached very critical and dangerous levels. Apart from this dramatic increase in the number of ships in the Istanbul Strait, the 2019 maritime sector report by the Maritime Chamber of Shipping clearly
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