ARIMA Model – Vietnam’s GDP Forecasting

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the value of all the finished goods and services produced within the country in a specific time period. It is a common indicator used to measure a nation’s economic growth. In this paper, the authors used the Box-Jenkins method to build an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) which is suitable for Vietnam’s GDP data. The annual GDP data of Vietnam is collected from Asian Development Bank (ADB) from 1985 to 2019. The appropriate model to forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth rate is ARIMA (3, 1, 3). Finally, the ARIMA model was used to forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth from 2020 to 2025.