Abstract
Abstract - A suitable monitoring method is necessary for successful policy implementation and its evalua-tion, required for effective prevention of abnormal fire occurrences. To do this, there were studies for applying control charts of quality management to fire occurrence monitoring. As a result, it was proved that more fire occurs in winter and its trend moves yearly-basis with some patterns. Although it has trend, if we apply the same criteria for each time, inefficient overreacting fire prevention policy will be accomplished in winter, and deficient policy will be accomplished in summer. Thus, applying different control limits adaptively for each time would enable better forecasting and monitoring of fire occurrences. In this study, we treat fire occurrences as time series model and propose a method for configuring its coefficients with ARIMA model. Based on this, we expect to carry out advanced analysis of fire occurrences and reasonable implementation of prevention activities. Key words : fire occurrence pattern, time series, ARIMA model, autocorrelationKIGAS Vol. 19, No. 2, pp 20~28, 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.7842/kigas. 2015.19.2.20(Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas)
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