Argonne’s global critical materials agent-based model (GCMat)

Abstract

Several studies have identified rare earths as critical materials. Although reasonably abundant in the Earth’s crust, rare earths typically occur in low concentrations of mined ores. Processes for recovering rare earth concentrates from these ores are complex and capital intensive. Further, lead times for deposit development, licensing, and construction are long, with reports of 10- 15 years. China is a major player in the rare earths supply chain, both in production capacity and technology innovation. In 2017, China supplied more than 80% of global rare earth oxide demand. Rare earth elements (REEs) have unique magnetic, catalytic, and phosphorescent properties that significantly improve performance of a wide range of technologies. These technologies span aerospace, energy, telecommunications, electronics, transportation, defense, and other diverse applications. Consequently, disruptions in rare earth supply can have a significant societal impact. Estimating that impact requires understanding of the dynamics across the supply chain, from rare earth oxide extraction to end use application. This report documents Argonne’s Global Critical Materials model (GCMat), first described by Riddle et al. 2015. GCMat provides capabilities to explore supply chain dynamics and uncertainty under scenarios of demand growth or shrinkage, technology adoption, supply disruptions, and trade policies and mitigation strategies of new supply sources, product substitution, consumer thrifting, and stockpiling. Supply chain participants from rare earth mining through final demand are modeled as interacting agents who make market decisions independently as time progresses. Since the version documented in Riddle et al. 2015, GCMat has been expanded to cover additional REEs, derived products and supply chains that use these REEs, and includes new agent behaviors and modeling capabilities. Section 2 provides a summary of the GCMat model design, including the structure of the model and key assumptions, section 3 summarizes methods used for model calibration and sensitivity analysis, and section 4 provides examples of model results.