Abstract
The intensity and extent of transmission of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus have increased markedly over the last decades. Autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya by Aedes albopictus has been recorded in Southern Europe where the invasive mosquito was already established and viraemic travelers had imported the virus. Ae. albopictus populations are spreading northward into Germany. Here, we model the current and future climatically suitable regions for Ae. albopictus establishment in Germany, using climate data of spatially high resolution. To highlight areas where vectors and viraemic travellers are most likely to come into contact, reported dengue and chikungunya incidences are integrated at the county level. German cities with the highest likelihood of autochthonous transmission of Aedes albopictus-borne arboviruses are currently located in the western parts of the country: Freiburg im Breisgau, Speyer, and Karlsruhe, affecting about 0.5 million people. In addition, 8.8 million people live in regions considered to show elevated hazard potential assuming further spread of the mosquito: Baden-Württemberg (Upper Rhine, Lake Constance regions), southern parts of Hesse, and North Rhine-Westphalia (Lower Rhine). Overall, a more targeted and thus cost-efficient implementation of vector control measures and health surveillance will be supported by the detailed maps provided here.
Highlights
The dengue, chikungunya, and Zika fevers are emerging viral diseases of significant global public health concern [1,2,3,4,5]
Rhine-Westphalia current show the highest values of climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus (Figure 2a, see Figure S1 for geographical reference)
The two locations where single specimens of the mosquito have been found in North Rhine-Westphalia lie in an area that is classified as climatically suitable by the model, suggesting that surveillance activities should be intensified in order to avoid unnoticed establishment of populations
Summary
The dengue, chikungunya, and Zika fevers are emerging viral diseases of significant global public health concern [1,2,3,4,5]. Transmission of these diseases requires the presence of competent vectors and viraemic humans or primates. In non-endemic areas, infected travellers returning from endemic countries can start the chain of infection if vectors are present and environmental conditions are appropriate. The invasive vector mosquito Aedes albopictus, closely associated with human settlements [6,7], is established in large areas of Southern Europe [8]. Public Health 2018, 15, 1270; doi:10.3390/ijerph15061270 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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