Are we on track reaching SDG3 in 2030? Gap analyses for African & European countries including Russia

Abstract

Abstract Background To reach the targets of SDG3 not more than a decade is left. How do the Low and Middle-Income Countries in Northern Africa - in the immediate neighborhood to Europe - compare to the 15 members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and well-developed European countries around the Baltic Sea (the “Northern Dimension”) incl. Russia? Methods We used quantifiable mortality indicators and targeted reductions until 2030, as published for SDG3.1/2/3 by the United Nations in 2015. To estimate progress or delay we used the methodology of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) based on the target year 2030, a year of observation, and a year at baseline. For the comparison between Northern Africa/Northern Europe we calculated for indicator 3.3 the Premature Years of Life Lost (PYLL) and for the comparison of Northern/Western Africa the more sensitive indicators 3.1 and 2, the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR), the Neonatal Mortality Rate NMR, and the under-five Mortality Rate (<5MR). Results In Northern Africa, only Algerian and Morocco will achieve the 2030 target 3.4 in time i.e., 2.5 and 7 years in advance, whereas Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are in delay Mauretania even by 14.5 years. The countries around the Baltic Sea likely will achieve the targeted reduction before 2030, Estonia on top already 2025, followed by Latvia and Finland in 2026, and the Russian Federation in 2027. Among the 15 West African states, Capo Verde has reached the targets 3.1 and 2 already, followed by Senegal (e.g., 4.0 years in advance for <5MR) and Ghana, whereas Guinea Bissau is positioned at the end with a delay of 4,2 years for MMR. The countries of Northern Africa are on track except for Algeria, with 6.2 years in delay for MMR and Mauretania for all indicators. Conclusions Whereas the European countries are well in advance of the SDG targets, Northern Africa shows a mixed picture and the countries of Western Africa with a few exceptions are in delay. Key messages European countries around the Baltic Sea and Russia are well on track for SDG3, reducing their premature mortality by one third until 2030. Whereas the European countries are well in advance of the SDG targets, Northern Africa shows a mixed picture and the countries of Western Africa with a few exceptions are in delay.