Are we going to live in a post-NATO world? A critical perspective on trends, obstacles and possibilities

Abstract

The main research question investigated in this paper is the following: will a post-NATO world emerge during the next decades? The relevance of such a question is a consequence of the political and economic changes that have seen the light as a result of the power shift of international relations after the end of the Cold War. In spite of this, some contradictory tendencies, such as the weakening of the European pole within the NATO block, the US-NATO enlargement and its military aggressiveness, are generating a number of significant obstacles to the emergence of a post-NATO world. We will argue that the existence of these obstacles could be interpreted as some steps toward the historical downsizing of the US-EU-NATO hegemony. A “post-NATO” world does not necessarily imply the end of NATO, but rather the end of its hegemonic military presence on the global stage. Firstly, we will put the question into context mentioning the debates around NATO’s future and underlining the path undertaken by the Alliance in the frame of the redefinition of the aims of its “strategic concepts”. In this perspective, we will underline the direct link which exists between US strategic needs and NATO’s evolution in the post-Cold war era. Secondly, we will argue that the recent process of military expansionism led by NATO is remarkably de-legitimizing its actions on the global stage. Such a process, along with the current world system shift toward the end of unipolarity, is likely to provoke dramatic consequences in terms of international insecurity and the spreading of war. Thirdly, we will briefly compare the US and Chinese foreign actions, arguing that the space of international legitimacy is radically changing. This fact represents another brick supporting the idea of the emergence of a post-NATO world system in the future of international relations.