Abstract
While climate change threatens global food security, health, and nutrition outcomes, Africa is more vulnerable because its economies largely depend on rain-fed agriculture. Thus, there is need for agricultural producers in Africa to employ robust adaptive measures that withstand the risks of climate change. However, the success of adaptation measures to climate change primarily depends on the communities’ knowledge or awareness of climate change and its risks. Nonetheless, existing empirical research is still limited to illuminate farmers’ awareness of the climate change problem. This study employs a Bayesian hierarchical logistic model, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods, to empirically determine drivers of smallholder farmers’ awareness of climate change and its risks to agriculture in Zambia. The results suggest that on average, 77% of farmers in Zambia are aware of climate change and its risks to agriculture. We find socio-demographics, climate change information sources, climate change adaptive factors, and climate change impact-related shocks as predictors of the expression of climate change awareness. We suggest that farmers should be given all the necessary information about climate change and its risks to agriculture. Most importantly, the drivers identified can assist policymakers to provide the effective extension and advisory services that would enhance the understanding of climate change among farmers in synergy with appropriate farm-level climate-smart agricultural practices.
Highlights
Recent studies have shown that climate change is a reality and threatens global food security, health, and nutrition outcomes [1,2,3,4]
These findings clearly suggest a high number of agricultural producers in Zambia in the sample are aware of climate change and the risk it poses on agricultural production
While not all smallholder farmers in Zambia and other countries may have college education, the opportunity to be aware of climate change and its risks to agriculture is at their disposal through climate change information sources such as the radio and agricultural extension that we found to have positive and meaningful effects on climate change awareness
Summary
Recent studies have shown that climate change is a reality and threatens global food security, health, and nutrition outcomes [1,2,3,4]. Despite being a global problem, the impacts of climate change are not felt across countries. Bounoua [5] contends that while climate change affects the whole world, Africa is more vulnerable because its economies are largely dependent on agriculture. To ensure that agricultural production systems are sufficiently resilient to climate change, there is need for agricultural producers in Africa to employ robust adaptive measures that would withstand the risks of climate change. Successful adaptation to climate change may have to depend on farmers’ knowledge or perception of the marvel. Ubisi et al [6] suggest that the success of climate change adaptation strategies depends on whether farmers fully understand what climate change is, and are
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