Are There Pre-Seismic Electromagnetic Precursors? A Multidisciplinary Approach

Abstract

In recent years, the wind prevailing in the scientific community does not appear to be favourable for earthquake (EQ) prediction research, in particular for the research of short term prediction [1]. Sometimes the arguments were extended to the extreme claim that any precursory activity is impossible [2]. Considering the difficulties associated with such factors as the highly complex nature, rarity of large EQs and subtleties of possible preseismic signatures, the present negative views are not groundless. It is difficult to prove associations between any two events (possible precursor and EQ) separated in time. To a certain extent, the aforementioned negative views were due to the fact that in the last decades the study of seismic precursors was expected to lead in a relatively short period of time to EQ prediction. However, the EQs are nothing but physical phenomena, and science should have some predictive power on their future behaviour of any physical system. In spite of this scepticism of the scientific community, the research towards the possible prediction of EQs in the future continues. This is attempted now with a more critical view taking into account new ideas and performing detailed theoretical, laboratory, field, and numerical investigations. Significant progress has been made in the research of precursory pattern changes of seismicity (e. g., Wyss and Martirosyan,[3]; Huang et al. [4]; Huang [5]) and the intermediate-term prediction of large EQs world-wide is already in the statistically proven stage (e g., Kossobokov et al. [6]). More recently, even the efforts to shorten the lead time to the “short-term” range are being made (e. g., Keilis-Borok et al.[7]). Some significant new waves have been rising in EQ science!