Are the Italian government's quarantine measures about the Covid-19 lethality effective? A mathematical statistical analysis

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, the authors present a particular Weighted Least Squares model, the Heteroskedasticity Corrected Linear Model (HCLM), to estimate the impact of the quarantine measures adopted by the Italian government since March 4th 2020 on the lethality rate of the Covid-19 virus. The results obtained suggest that overall these restrictive measures have proven effective, leading to a 3,59% reduction in the lethality rate within 27 days. Furthermore, the authors have decomposed the historical series of the Lethality Rate by identifying, in addition to a first component of easily observable trend, also a second component of noise that is distributed as a white noise. The model shown by the authors, which is absolutely innovative, can also be used to study historical series data relating to any epidemic, be it of bacterial or viral origin. JEL classification numbers: C01, C02, C13, C22, C60. Keywords: Covid-19, Lethality rate, Mathematical and statistical models for epidemiology, Time Series Analysis, Health Policy.