Abstract
The purpose of the current study was to determine whether a change in criminal thinking or a change in perceived certainty mediates the putative criminogenic effect of incarceration. A path analysis of 1,170 male delinquents revealed that incarceration prior to age 19 produced a negative rather than positive effect on offending behavior at age 20, although it did predict an increase in proactive criminal thinking (PCT) from age 18 to age 19. PCT, in turn, predicted a rise in past year offending. Perceived certainty of punishment, on the other hand, failed to mediate the effect of incarceration on future offending.
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