Are temporal trends in colonoscopy among young adults concordant with colorectal cancer incidence?

Abstract

Objective In the United States, colorectal cancer incidence has increased in adults under age 55. Although debate remains about whether this rise is a result of increased detection because of more colonoscopy utilization, population-based trends in colonoscopy among this age group are unknown. We examined changes in colonoscopy rates, as well as colorectal cancer incidence, among adults aged 40–54, using nationally representative data. Methods Recent (past year) colonoscopy rates were computed among 53,175 respondents aged 40–54 in National Health Interview Survey data from 2000 through 2015 by five-year age group. Colorectal cancer incidence rates and incidence rate ratios were estimated from 18 population-based Surveillance Epidemiology and End Result registries during the same period. Results Among respondents aged 40–44, past-year colonoscopy rates were stable during 2000–2015, and ranged from 2.3% to 3.5% ( p-value for trend = 0.771). In contrast, colonoscopy rates increased from 2.5% in 2000 to 5.2% in 2015 among ages 45–49, and from 5.0% to 14.1% in ages 50–54 (test for trend p-values < 0.001). During 2000–2015, colorectal cancer incidence rates increased by 28% in people aged 40–44 (incidence rate ratio = 1.28, 95% CI 1.20, 2.37), 15% in those aged 45–49 (incidence rate ratio = 1.15, 95%CI 1.10, 1.21), and 17% in those aged 50–54 (incidence rate ratio = 1.17, 95%CI 1.13, 1.21), respectively. Conclusion Increases in colonoscopy rates were confined to ages 45–54, whereas colorectal cancer incidence rates rose in those aged 40–44, 45–49, and 50–54. Colonoscopy trends do not fully align with colorectal cancer incidence patterns.