Are survival estimates and models obtained by capture-recapture correct? A triple analysis of data with known dates of death

Abstract

We use data from a survey of women with metastatic breast cancer coming more or less regularly for check-ups as a real-size test of capture-recapture methodology and models. Unlike capture-recapture data of animals, the date of death of each individual is exactly known. The individuals were separated into four groups; the study lasted for 10 years separated into 32 visit occasions (one every fourth month). We analysed the data three times: once with standard survival analysis with known date of death (discrete-time proportional hazards models); once with capture-recapture models after removing the date of death (using 'live recaptur' records); and once with 'return rates' corrected by later encounters of the individuals ('minimum number alive' estimates). Comparing the results obtained from the three methods confirms the efficiency of capture-recapture analysis.