Are Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) the Missing Component in Cognitive Warfare? The Future of ISR Military Operations

Abstract

U.S. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) operators collect critical information with respect to our adversaries ground movement patterns, weapon capabilities, and strategic framework to support future military direction and enhance Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) situational awareness. However, the ability for ISR operators to (1) detect and identify essential elements of information (EEI) within vague or ill-defined content and (2) fuse and disseminate collected information across the JADC2 enterprise is extremely challenging. To combat these issues, ISR tools have been developed to assist and facilitate the comprehension of collected intelligence in an effort to augment and enhance decision-making efficacy. More recently, Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) has been an area of interest within military applications in an effort to support processing, exploitation, and dissemination (PED) of collected intelligence. SATs comprise of a systematic process that enhances critical thinking and logical reasoning by reducing cognitive biases. Previous research has discovered that implementing SATs when providing vague/ill-defined content has been shown to improve decision-making performance. Therefore, the objective of this study was to add to the body of knowledge by evaluating the effectiveness of Sphinx, an ISR decision-support tool focused on SAT methodology, when providing vague/ill-defined content. Four groups of 10 active-duty military operators (N=40) were randomly assigned to one of two analytic techniques (Sphinx or Control) and provided textual content in either incremental or complete sections with the objective of correctly detecting embedded EEIs resulting in improved performance accuracy. The findings discovered that providing active-duty military operators with Sphinx coupled with an incremental workflow methodology resulted in the highest solution accuracy compared to all other conditions (i.e., 6 of 10 operators identified the correct solution – 60%). Moreover, operators that were provided Sphinx detected significantly more EEIs compared to the Control condition (p<0.01). This discovery provides new evidence that equipping active-duty military operators with Sphinx, an ISR decision-support tool, can enhance the detection of EEIs resulting in improved performance. More specifically, Sphinx enabled the operators to better understand vague content leading to greater detection of EEIs. The processing, exploitation, and dissemination (PED) of EEIs within Sphinx can greatly benefit the JADC2 enterprise by enhancing situational awareness and future military direction and recommendations.