Are Stringent Containment and Closure Policies Associated with a Lower COVID-19 Spread Rate? Global Evidence.

Zongfeng Xiu,Pengshuo Feng,Yingjun Zhu,Jingwei Yin

doi:10.3390/ijerph19031725

Abstract

Stringent government policies, in general, and strict containment and closure policies in particular including workplace closing, restrictions on gatherings, close of public transport, stay-at-home order, restrictions on internal movement, and international travel control are associated with a lower spread rate of COVID-19 cases. On the other hand, school closures and public event cancellations have not been found to be associated with lower COVID-19 spread. Restrictions on international travel and the closing of public transport are two policies that stand out and have a consistent and slowing effect on the spread of COVID-19. The slowing effect of the containment and closure policies on the spread of COVID-19 becomes stronger one week after the policies have been implemented, consistent with the SARS-CoV-2 transmission pattern and the incubation period evolution. Furthermore, the slowing effect becomes stronger for culturally tight countries and countries with a higher population density. Our findings have important policy implications, implying that governments need to carefully implement containment and closure policies in their own countries’ social and cultural contexts, with an emphasis on the ideas of the common interest, personal responsibility, and the sense of community.

Highlights

SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus strain responsible for COVID-19, an infectious respiratory disease, has spread rapidly across the world
Among the eight specific containment and closure policies, we found that school closures and cancellation of public events had no significant effects on reducing the COVID-19 spread; while the other six policies including workplace closing, restrictions on gatherings, the closing of public transport, stay-at-home requirements, restrictions on internal movement, and international travel controls were significantly and negatively associated with the lower
We found that the stringent policies were generally associated with the lower spread rate, and such a negative association became stronger one week after these policies had been implemented, for culturally tight countries and for countries with a higher population density

Summary

Introduction

SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus strain responsible for COVID-19, an infectious respiratory disease, has spread rapidly across the world. As of 1 November 2020, COVID-19 has been responsible for more than 47 million cases and a total of 1.2 million deaths worldwide (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, accessed on 2 November 2020). Given the vast difference in the spread and prevalence of COVID-19 among countries and regions across the world, for example, the first case of COVID-19 in the U.S was reported on 21 January 2020, but since the. In South Korea, the first case was reported on 20 January 2020 and it has reported 26,732 cases and 468 deaths by 2 November 2020

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