Are socio-demographic and economic characteristics good predictors of misinformation during an epidemic?

Elisa M Maffioli,Robert Gonzalez,Peter Bai James

doi:10.1371/journal.pgph.0000279

Elisa M Maffioli, Robert Gonzalez + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000279

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Abstract

We combine data on beliefs about the origin of the 2014 Ebola outbreak with two supervised machine learning methods to predict who is more likely to be misinformed. Contrary to popular beliefs, we uncover that, socio-demographic and economic indicators play a minor role in predicting those who are misinformed: misinformed individuals are not any poorer, older, less educated, more economically distressed, more rural, or ethnically different than individuals who are informed. However, they are more likely to report high levels of distrust, especially towards governmental institutions. By distinguishing between types of beliefs, distrust in the central government is the primary predictor of individuals assigning a political origin to the epidemic, while Muslim religion is the most important predictor of whether the individual assigns a supernatural origin. Instead, educational level has a markedly higher importance for ethnic beliefs. Taken together, the results highlight that government trust might play the most important role in reducing misinformation during epidemics.

Highlights

Health misinformation is considered a major threat to global public health [1], and can exacerbate infectious disease outbreaks
A key objective of these strategies is to mitigate the spread of misinformation, especially during outbreaks of novel diseases such as the Ebola epidemics in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the current COVID-19 pandemic, where much was unknown about the pathogens and treatments were not yet available [3, 4]
Distrust in the central government is the primary predictor of individuals assigning a political origin to the epidemic

Summary

Introduction

Health misinformation is considered a major threat to global public health [1], and can exacerbate infectious disease outbreaks. Curbing the spread of infectious diseases requires effective information dissemination strategies [2]. A key objective of these strategies is to mitigate the spread of misinformation, especially during outbreaks of novel diseases such as the Ebola epidemics in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the current COVID-19 pandemic, where much was unknown about the pathogens and treatments were not yet available [3, 4]. When the 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic unfolded, denials, conspiracy theories, and false rumors were common [8] and disrupted public health interventions [9–15]. Misinformation is common for other health-related issues such as vaccinations [20–22], nutrition, cancer, fluoridation of water and smoking [3, 8]

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