Are short-term cultural shocks persistent? Taliban rule and long-run human capital accumulation

Abstract

We analyze the impact of religious and culturally motived policy on long-term human-capital development. Exploiting the unexpected rise and fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 and geographic variation in exposure to Taliban rule, we find a large negative impact of its rule on education and literacy rates among both men and women who were early-school-age under their rule. We also find that when those girls later became mothers, they reduced health investment in their own children– e.g., lower vaccination rates and higher infant mortality. Yet, this reduced investment is not explained by family-planning differences or the Taliban's enforcement of highly patriarchal norms. Rather it appears to relate to the lack of knowledge in basic healthcare, which is likely associated with the Taliban's role in depressing education and literacy. In sum, even short-term cultural/religious-related policies can have persistent impacts on long-term human-capital formation and overall growth and development.