Abstract
There is a large literature exploring possible hydrogen futures, using various modelling and scenario approaches. This paper compares the rates of transition depicted in that literature with a set of historical analogies. These analogies are cases in which alternative-fuelled vehicles have penetrated vehicle markets. The paper suggests that the literature has tended to be optimistic about the possible rate at which hydrogen vehicles might replace oil-based transportation. The paper compares 11 historical adoptions of alternative fuel vehicles with 24 scenarios from 20 studies that depict possible hydrogen futures. All but one of the hydrogen scenarios show vehicle adoption faster than has occurred for hybrid electric vehicles in Japan, the most successful market for hybrids. Several scenarios depict hydrogen transitions occurring at a rate faster than has occurred in any of the historic examples. The paper concludes that scenarios of alternative vehicle adoption should include more pessimistic scenarios alongside optimistic ones.
Highlights
There is a substantial existing empirical literature examining the rates at which technologies have historically diffused into markets (Hirooka, 2006; Rogers, 2003)
The analysis presented here provides important insights into plausible rates of adoption for alternative fuelled vehicles
It should be clear that the analogies are limited in terms of their applicability to hydrogen, and the quantitative patterns identified are limited by data weaknesses
Summary
There is a substantial existing empirical literature examining the rates at which technologies have historically diffused into markets (Hirooka, 2006; Rogers, 2003). To say that something is possible, in his view, means that its occurrence is consistent with what we know (or alternatively, is not inconsistent with what we know1); in which case, a judgement on whether something is possible is dependent on a certain source of knowledge In this context, historic analogies can be understood as providing knowledge about the nature of change in vehicle systems—these analogies represent ‘what we know’ about how fast such change can occur. This paper compares rates of diffusion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in scenarios with a set of historical alternative fuelled vehicle analogies. In doing so, it assesses future scenarios in terms of their consistency with our historical knowledge about technology diffusion. Methods: comparing rates of alternative vehicle adoption The approach taken by this study was four-fold:
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