Abstract
COP21 led to an agreed target of keeping the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. Due to its high potential for decarbonisation, the building stock will have to contribute a reduction of at least 85–95% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions until 2050. Policy-driven scenario analysis is, therefore, important for assisting policy makers who are called upon to develop a corresponding framework to achieve those targets. The research questions of this paper are (1) Do long-term scenarios (in particular those labelled as ambitious) of energy demand in buildings reflect the COP21 target? (2) If not: What are reasons for the gap in terms of scenario assumptions, in particular, regarding the policy framework in the corresponding scenarios? The method builds on following steps: (1) analysis of GHG-emission reduction in scenarios from the policy-driven, bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab; (2) compare scenarios among each other and analyse if they are in line with Paris targets; (3) discuss possible explanations for any gaps and the implications on future modelling work and policy making. Results show that scenarios labelled as being “ambitious” for several EU MSs achieve GHG-emission reductions of 56–96% until 2050. However, just 27% of these ambitious scenarios achieve reductions above 85%. The reason is that policies for most of the modelled scenarios were developed together with policy makers and stakeholders, who—for different reasons—were not willing to go beyond a certain stringency in the modelled instruments. In particular, this was the case for regulatory instruments, which show to be essential for achieving ambitious climate targets.
Highlights
COP21 led to an internationally agreed target of Bholding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels^ (UNFCCC 2015)
Due to its high potential for decarbonisation, the building stock will have to cover at least the same reduction
The current study focuses on space heating, hot water and cooling energy demand in both the residential and non-residential building stock
Summary
COP21 led to an internationally agreed target of Bholding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels^ (UNFCCC 2015). There are numerous scientific reports and academic journals assessing long-term energy demand in the building sector using different scenario frameworks, including energy price development, climate change, policy measures and technological change (Olonscheck et al 2011; Asimakopoulos et al 2012; McKenna et al 2013; Töglhofer et al 2012; Ó Broin et al 2013; Steinbach 2015). These papers show similar future trends, namely, a decrease in heating energy demand in winter and an increase in cooling energy demand in summer. An increase in cooling energy demand, on the other hand, is driven by a warmer climate and rising comfort standards
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