Are Poverty and Social Goals for the 21st Century Attainable?

Abstract

Summaries The article assesses the prospects for countries attaining two important International Development Goals (IDGs) by the year 2015: halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty; and reducing by two thirds the death rate for children. On the basis of recent growth experience and predicted GDP growth rates, the picture is mixed. About a half of the developing countries for which data are available are likely to reach the poverty reduction target. However, with improved economic policy (reflected in the ‘openness’ index), the number of countries shown likely to achieve the target increases sharply. Prospects for achieving the child mortality target are much bleaker. Even under the most favorable scenario – improved female education and high economic growth – child mortality rates would be substantially above the IDG target for 2015. The article reviews the types of public action that are needed now if these targets are to be attained. It emphasises the need to focus on policy and institutional reforms needed to achieve well‐functioning social sectors.