Are men with favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer candidates for active surveillance?

Abstract

82 Background: Active surveillance (AS) is considered appropriate for patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PC) and a life expectancy of at least 10 years. However, with grade migration following the 2005 International Society of Urologic Pathology consensus conference, AS may also be an initial option for men with favorable intermediate-risk PC. We estimated and compared the risk of PC-specific mortality (PCSM) following high dose radiation therapy and androgen deprivation therapy as appropriate amongst men with low, favorable intermediate, unfavorable intermediate, and high-risk PC. Methods: The study consisted of 6,595 consecutively treated men (median age: 68 years) with localized or locally advanced PC at the Chicago PC Center between 1997 and 2013. Fine and Gray competing risks regression analyses (table) were used to assess the risk of PCSM in men with favorable intermediate, unfavorable intermediate or high-risk compared to low-risk PC, adjusting for age at and year of treatment. Results: After median follow-up of 7.76 years, 820 men died: 72 of PC. While men with favorable intermediate-risk did not have significantly increased risk of PCSM as compared to low-risk PC (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.28, 0.63-2.62 95% confidence interval (CI), p-value 0.49), men with high (adjusted HR 9.91, 5.48-17.94 95% CI, p-value <0.0001) or unfavorable intermediate-risk PC (adjusted HR 3.17, 1.60-6.30, p-value 0.001) did. Eight-year point estimates of PCSM were low: 0.68% [0.32-1.31% 95% CI] and 0.44% [0.25-0.75% 95% CI] for men with favorable intermediate and low-risk PC, respectively. Conclusions: Men with low and favorable intermediate-risk PC have similar and low estimates of PCSM during the first decade following standard management. These results provide evidence to support AS as an initial approach for men with favorable intermediate-risk PC. [Table: see text]