Are marriages that cross ethnic boundaries more likely to end in divorce?

Abstract

According to the most recent Australian census, almost 40 per cent of the population were immigrants or the children of immigrants. They came from a wide range of countries, mainly in Europe or Asia. Earlier census analyses of their marriage patterns in Australia show a declining tendency over time towards inmarriage among most immigrant groups. However, there are potential biases in using retrospective census data to measure changes in inmarriage. For example, marriages that cross ethnic lines may be more likely to end in divorce than ethnically homogeneous marriages. If so, an analysis of marriages surviving to the most recent census will tend to (1)understate past rates of intermarriage and (2)overstate any trend over time towards intermarriage. This paper discusses data on ethnic divorce patterns in Australia since the end of the Second World War and assesses evidence for differential rates of breakdown among ethnically homogeneous versus heterogeneous marriages. Analysis shows that, relative to a cross-pressures model of behavioural convergence, heterogamous marriages are more likely to end in divorce than homogamous ones.