Are immigrants migrating away from transit? Immigrant transit use trends in California

Abstract

While patronage on most public transit systems around the world remains modestly to significantly depressed post-pandemic, transit ridership had mostly been declining across the US since 2014. Advocates, practitioners, and scholars have offered a range of explanations for pre-pandemic patronage decline. This analysis examines the demand-side of this phenomenon by focusing on high-propensity transit riders, and, in particular, immigrants in the most populous US state: California. Drawing on the California add-on to the 2009 and 2017 National Household Travel Surveys, we evaluate changes in transit use among Hispanic and Asian immigrants. We find that during the study period, transit trip frequency of Hispanic immigrants declined, converging toward the ridership patterns of US-born Hispanics. While this trend was largely the result of rising incomes, increased vehicle ownership, and lower residential densities among non-US-born Hispanics, all else equal, Hispanic immigrants continued to use transit more than their US-born counterparts. By contrast, transit trip making by Asian immigrants diverged from that of US-born Asians. Notably, this divergence was not the result of declining per-person trip making by Asian immigrants, which was relatively stable during the study period. Instead, the growing gap was due to increases in transit trip frequency by US-born Asians.