Are human activities consistent with planning? A big data evaluation of master plan implementation in Changchun

Abstract

Urban planning has a significant impact on human spatial activities. The evaluation of urban planning implementation is important to determine how urban planning can guide spatial activities. However, existing evaluation methods focus more on physical space and largely neglect the object of urban planning—the people themselves. Furthermore, they rarely evaluate whether urban construction truly meets people’s demands. This study analyzes the spatial pattern of employment in Changchun, China, based on data on human activities and compares it with the Changchun Master Plan. Spatial patterns and the structure of employment in Changchun were calculated using mobile phone signal data, and the implementation effect of employment space in the master plan was evaluated using human activity patterns. The results demonstrate that although urban planning plays a role in guiding residents’ employment activities, it cannot achieve the plan’s desired effect. Many construction lands do not play an effective role in guiding residents’ spatial behavior based on the master plan. Moreover, the commuting distance in suburban areas is much longer than that in central areas. This phenomenon is not caused by the plan’s multicenter structure but by the lagging of the urban development behind planning expectations and delays in planning revision. This study indicates that urban planning evaluation is important after implementation and big data are a significant tool as they can precisely assess whether the plan has achieved its goals.