Abstract
Studies on the symbiosis of crime and COVID-19 have analyzed governmentmandated lockdown effects. However, it is unknown to what extent previous crime rates determined a larger and more mortal spread of the pandemic. We study how homicides and robberies in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 are associated with 2020 mortality rates due to COVID-19 in urban municipalities in Mexico. Considering sex differentials in health, exposure to the virus and experiences of violence, we study whether gender differences in mortality exist in 2020. Using publicly available data on deaths due to COVID-19 provided by the Mexican Secretariat of Health, along with a series of indicators to characterize local pre-pandemic conditions of urban municipalities, we estimate a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models on age-standardized crude death rates (ASCDR) by sex. Findings show that homicides—a proxy for criminal violence that might encourage people to stay home—show significant negative associations with mortality rates. Comparatively, robberies—a proxy of local violence and safety—were positively associated with mortality rates for both sexes. Sex differences in the determinants of ASCDR are discussed.
Highlights
The link between COVID-19 and violence has been studied by analyzing to what extent physical distancing measures, lockdowns, and stay-at-home mandates impact the incidence of different types of crime, such as domestic and child abuse, crime in public spaces and crime by gangs and organized groups
Research on cities in the United States, Canada and Australia has shown that while lockdown measures led to reductions in thefts, robberies and crime in public spaces; and to increases in domestic violence and other types of crimes committed in private spaces, as well as in phone extortion and cybercrime; these measures had no effects on homicides and kidnapping by organized crime groups (Abrams, 2021; Boman and Gallupe, 2020; Hodgkinson and Andresen, 2020; Mohler et al, 2020; Payne and Morgan, 2020)
We investigate the complex association between COVID-19 and crime and violence by considering whether crime and violence rates in communities prior to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with 2020 mortality rates due to COVID-19 in urban Mexico
Summary
The link between COVID-19 and violence has been studied by analyzing to what extent physical distancing measures, lockdowns, and stay-at-home mandates impact the incidence of different types of crime, such as domestic and child abuse, crime in public spaces and crime by gangs and organized groups. Research on cities in the United States, Canada and Australia has shown that while lockdown measures led to reductions in thefts, robberies and crime in public spaces; and to increases in domestic violence and other types of crimes committed in private spaces, as well as in phone extortion and cybercrime; these measures had no effects on homicides and kidnapping by organized crime groups (Abrams, 2021; Boman and Gallupe, 2020; Hodgkinson and Andresen, 2020; Mohler et al, 2020; Payne and Morgan, 2020) Such findings are in line with research for Mexico City: while conventional crime declined, organized crime remained steady (Balmori de la Miyar et al, 2021). Positive neighborhood conditions can protect against other health problems: for example, neighborhood social cohesion is associated with successfully quitting smoking in Mexico (Lozano et al, 2016)
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