Are forest carbon projects in Africa green but mean?: A mixed-method analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT As a climate change mitigation strategy, emission reduction projects, such as those related to forest carbon, are being developed around the globe. Framed under a multiple-win narrative, such projects are praised by multi-lateral organisations as initiatives that simultaneously mitigate climate change and foster socio-economic development in project countries. A great deal of scholarly literature, however, has found that projects fail to deliver on the promised benefits and can even have security implications. This study contributes to an emerging body of literature on the undesired effects of climate change mitigation interventions in the Global South. Research into the security implications of climate change mitigation actions remains scarce and the current evidence is largely drawn from case-by-case analysis. Using a multi-level logistic regression model based on the geospatial information of 22 forest carbon projects in Sub-Saharan Africa, this study finds that community contestation drastically increases after project implementation and that violent conflict also increases in the wider project landscape. The qualitative findings from one sampled case, the Bukaleba forest reserve in Uganda, provides further support for this relationship by documenting not only conflict events but also multiple factors that can increase conflict risk.