Are food price changes a way to affect the diet of Chinese poor: shifts over time for the poor and the rich

Abstract

With over a third of adults overweight and rises in all nutrition‐related noncommunicable diseases, China must to find ways to shift toward a healthier diet and reduce energy imbalance. This study uses longitudinal data on 11,316 Chinese adults followed from 1991–2004. Random effects mixed models were used to model the relationships among food consumption, price and income over time. A logit analysis of the decision whether or not to consume, and conditional on consumption, an OLS analysis of the quantity consumed, examined the association between price and intake of 5 key foods (rice, pork, cabbage, chicken, eggs). Own‐ and cross‐price elasticities were examined as were time‐ and income‐price interactions. An increase in the price of rice, pork or eggs was associated with a significant decrease in the likelihood of consuming each food, particularly for the poor. For both the poor and rich these price elasticities became smaller over time as incomes increased and prices continued to fall. For more basic foodstuffs, cabbage and chicken, the price increase was associated with a decrease in quantity of each food consumed in the poor, but not the rich. Significant effects of food price changes on consumption of substitute and complementary foods were seen (e.g. an increase in the price of pork was associated with a significant increase in likelihood of consuming cabbage (β =.39; p<.0005), eggs (β = 0.13; p=.03), and chicken (β =.34; p=.001). We use techniques to account for the pricing effects on consumption of all products and provide insights into potential targets for changing price subsidies to improve the nutrient profile of the poor.