Are fears of an increase in casualization due to Covid-19 justified?

Abstract

Will the education sector be immune from the financial debacle caused by Covid-19? The impact will be acute, universities in the United Kingdom, for example, has recognized serious financial challenges ahead and London Economics is indicating a potential sector-wide loss of tuition fees of 2.6 billion pounds next year. This will be hard for the private universities which mainly derive their income from registration fees and donations. However, the public universities will also be hit financially by Covid-19, since a lower-income at the national level will reduce the government’s funding. With further pressure likely to land on research funding from public, charitable, and commercial sources, universities, in general, will be facing significant financial challenges ahead. To offset drops in government funding higher education institutions might, as a measure of cost-saving, stagnate or even decline the number of full-time permanent positions, and shift to casual or contract positions. Switching a tenure position to a contractual appointment will be juridical difficult, probably not possible. But it is not unlikely, that when full-time professors retire, the vacancies will be filled with a casual or contract position. Thus, it is to be expected that in the coming years the number of tenure positions in higher education will drop.